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According to Michael Zenke from Massively, Age of Conan Goldgame has sold 400,000 copies, out of 700,000 boxes they put on the shelvesNot bad for the first weekAnd, kudos to Funcom, the release launch went a lot smoother than the beta or early accessThe reception of Age of Conan Goldgame in the blogosphere was a mixedKeen and Graev already cancelled their accounts againTipa from West Karana sees Age of Conan Goldgame challenging WoWThe Ancient Gaming Noob correctly points out that "MMOs are a long haul proposition" and reserves judgement until having played it moreAnd the Common Sense Age of Conan Goldgame r thinks that WoW won't even notice Age of Conan Goldgame is out.

So here is what I thinkI don't have proof, only anecdotal evidence, so preface every phrase here with "In my humble opinion": I think that World of Warcraft suffers from a cycle of peaks and troughs in subscription numbersThis is largely self-inflicted, numbers peak after big content patches and expansions, and fall in long periods of no new content addedOther factors, like summer holidays, also play a roleI do believe that WoW is heading for a major trough of subscription numbers in the western worldRemember that of the 10.7 million WoW players about 6 million are Chinese, who are on a different cycle, and who pay much lessThere are less than 5 million Age of Conan Goldplayer s in the US and Europe, and the number will be falling over the summer, because the Burning Crusade is getting long in the tooth, and not everyone likes to spend his summer holidays in front of a computer.

Age of Conan Goldgame will reach between half a million and one million subscribers this yearMost of which will be ex-WoW playersA good number of them will have stopped playing WoW anyway, with or without Age of Conan Goldgame, but a couple of hundred thousand will be pushed over the edge and quit WoW for the prospect of a new Age of Conan GoldgameAnd Blizzard will notice that, because all of these are the well-paying US/Euro kind of subscribersAge of Conan Goldgame will not "kill" World of Warcraft, but it will dent it a bit.

Summer will end, christmas will approach, and now everything is possibleWoW could bring out Wrath of the Lich King in November, and it's subscription numbers would peak againAnd personally I don't see Age of Conan Goldgame having much staying power, not in a Age of Conan Goldgame where the first people reached the level cap in the first week alreadyWrath of the Lich King will make a much larger dent into Age of Conan Goldgame 's subscription numbers than Age of Conan Goldgame does into WoW's nowBut another possibility is that Blizzard misses a 2008 release date for WotLKAnd it is also quite possible that Warhammer Online makes that date, and comes out for christmasAnd then Blizzard would really start feeling the painI do believe that WAR has an even bigger potential of getting subscribers away from WoW than Age of Conan Goldgame hasIf WAR comes out for christmas and WotLK doesn't, they could easily sell a million copies this yearAgain, these are all Americans and Europeans, and if WAR beats WotLK to a christmas release, WoW numbers could suffer an even deeper trough.